Podcast 013 Mental Models

013 Mental Models Transcript

Heather McKee:

Welcome to the Modern Polymath where we discuss topics in technology, economics, marketing, organizational behavior, market research, human resources, psychology, algorithms, higher education, cybersecurity.

Heather McKee:

Hey, podcast universe. Thanks for tuning in to the first episode of 2020. We had planned to be back with new episodes sooner than this, but COVID. No matter, we are excited for a great lineup of episodes and content this year.

Heather McKee:

On today’s episode of the Modern Polymath, we discuss mental models and some reasons why they are important to continued learning and critical thinking. As always, we have with us Dr. Jon Christiansen, John-David McKee, Will Callaway, and I am Heather McKee. Now, let’s get this podcast started.

Heather McKee:

So I was reading an article the other day that Will gave me. It’s from 2018 and it’s from Michael Simmons. And it was about an underrated skill which basically was talking about figuring out how to dig through all the noise of content out there. And figure out what’s actually knowledge that you should spend your time on and reading. So basically saying, don’t read the 20th marketing article on the same thing that you’ve already read about. Read something brand new that changes your thinking, totally disrupts the way that you were thinking about something.

Heather McKee:

But the article really says that one way to do that, and how a lot of people really do it. And to mesh all this information together is using mental models. And it made me think back to all of our talks on what is a polymath? And learning how to learn. And learning here’s how one concept is similar to another but with certain variables in between, or differences. But what are the other ways that we use mental models other than culling through content and information in learning?

Will Callaway:

Yeah, so I think one of the things that you mentioned before is taking the flip side of the argument or the flip side of the knowledge. And I mean, that’s something that you see in lawyers preparing for litigation. They’ll take adversarial facts that could counter their argument-

Dr. Jon C:

How to kick my own ass. I mean-

Will Callaway:

Yeah. Exactly. It’s like how to kill the business. You have to think through different ways and different approaches. It’s just like a seesaw. If you’re on one end, take the view on the other side. And then bang it back and forth until you reach some form of truth or some form of optimal outcome.

Dr. Jon C:

Well, and maybe if you have any critical thinking, you can converge on some semblance of … Well, if I think about that then I see both sides and there’s some aggregation in the middle which the country’s not great at, but …

Will Callaway:

Or you set up a decision tree, right? So [crosstalk 00:03:06]

Dr. Jon C:

Rule set. I mean it’s …

Will Callaway:

But you think through it and then as the new situation arises, you use your basing updating and if this happens, then we’re going to go down this road. And if this happens, maybe this is the more optimal way of thinking this through.

John-David McKee:

So it’s continuing to get information and being open minded of the information that you get to expand what you see and understand.

Will Callaway:

Yeah, while using the mental model as the framework of how you view it.

John-David McKee:

Right. But the people that don’t do that, that make up their mind about something and don’t seek out additional information and say, no, it’s got to be this way because this is what I understand. That’s what we talk about. [crosstalk 00:03:41]

Dr. Jon C:

But here’s what’s so funny. So there’s the flip side, which is this is my framework and this is yours, and mine’s right.

Will Callaway:

Right.

Dr. Jon C:

Then there’s the others, which is even worse. We’re saying the same exact thing. Like … I’ll never forget I was in my first year of my doctorate and I got just absolutely obliterated on the idea of the concept of positive and normative. Positive is what is and normative is what ought to be like. So one is like it is what it is. The other is, okay, so here’s what we can do about it. We talk about forecasting. Here’s the realistic expectation of what we can do and here’s what we can do to alter that potential trajectory. Right?

Dr. Jon C:

In economics that’s how it works. In education and in sociology and psychology, they use different terms for it. But then the term positive and normative means something different over here. So it’s like, no, no, no, that’s wrong. Okay. Now, I’m just using … It’s like, I don’t want to say tomato, tomato, but maybe it’s-

Will Callaway:

I’m using my industry language and your industry language is different. They’re not buzzwords. They just have different underlying meanings because they’ve different thought.

John-David McKee:

That’s one of the things we talk about with setting up a data culture is, it’s one of the reasons it’s so important to do that at the strategic decision making level and disseminated across the entire organization because everybody needs to be working from the same vernacular and understands … Communication is the most important and probably the most difficult thing to institute across an organization. You’ve got to start by making sure you’re using the same language and you understand what you’re saying. Or if I’m saying something to you and people fall into that jargon trap so much and it’s like, let’s just figure out what we’re trying to say. Let’s not try to sound smarter than each other. Let’s just answer this question or put our perspective out there. But to do that, we have to speak the same language.

Dr. Jon C:

It’s funny you say that because it reminds me of when we’re all talking about, there’s machine learning, there’s data science, there’s data modeling, there’s business analytics. You look at all the definitions. So let’s say we read the 20 articles for each of them. Okay, so here’s what I got out of all of them. Problem or question are one, data and tool. They’re all the same thing. But there’s a different problem because in machine learning, the problem is different than in statistical modeling. And there’s a different tool because in machine learning it’s a fuzzy algorithm and in statistical modeling if you’re going into the higher level, it might be basing inference or it might be a Tobit model. But at the end of the day, you’re largely saying the same thing. But we all know how to look at the world in problems. But like the Maslow quote, if the only tool you have in your pencil box is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail.

Heather McKee:

Yeah. Yeah, that’s true.

Dr. Jon C:

If the only model you have is the one you’re operating from and you’re not …

John-David McKee:

Updating it.

Dr. Jon C:

Because that’s ultimately we’re talking about. A mental model is, I’m operating from here. And then every new piece of information, I’m banging it against what I have. It’s like my filter. It’s like I’m either adding a component, I’m adding depth to it or I’m confirming it and adding a layer of where it can go.

John-David McKee:

Yeah. And that’s the polymath aspect of this thing that’s so important. For instance, when we built Achilles, our super computer, I became better at woodworking and building things out of wood. I also became better at understanding how software works, right? Because I’m taking these things, it’s something that I haven’t done before, but I’ve done a lot of things that were around it. Once I understood how that all fit together and how basically these different components came together into a finished product, then you see that it’s no different than these other things that you already know.

John-David McKee:

But you have to translate that into what you already know first. And then the relative skills and the different pieces end up looking very similar. But if everybody’s just looking at it from a terminology standpoint, everything seems so different, right? I mean you look at like legalese. If you sit there and try to read any kind of legal document, it doesn’t make any sense because the language they’re using, largely intentionally-

Dr. Jon C:

Habeas corpus.

John-David McKee:

Yeah. It’s like, what does that mean?

Dr. Jon C:

It’s Latin.

John-David McKee:

And for me whenever I started reviewing contracts and all, and I was a newbie in the business world, I didn’t understand what any of it meant. And then once I had gotten through enough these, I’m like, okay, so it sounds fancy, but all it’s saying is this. It’s a very common concept.

John-David McKee:

It makes sense or it doesn’t, or it at least … the reason it doesn’t make sense is because the law itself doesn’t make sense or whatever it is. But it’s like you got to understand the language you’re trying to say and what you’re trying to get out of it first.

Dr. Jon C:

So the first thing I’ll take is, I’m glad you acquired a very transferable, usable skill out of building a supercomputer because all I got was judging every piece of electronics equipment to the Nth degree after getting that. And I can’t even use a regular computer now without wanting to throw it through a wall.

John-David McKee:

Yeah. Well, I actually didn’t get the computer. So I just got the benefit of building it. I didn’t actually get one that performed better.

Dr. Jon C:

But now you can literally rebuild a deck and all I’d want to do is throw every piece of electronic equipment that’s not literally wired like swordfish to … If I can’t work off of a 55-inch dual-set monitor now, I don’t even want to have a conversation with you.

Dr. Jon C:

Like put me on an airplane now and I’m working off a 13-inch computer. I may as well just teleport.

Heather McKee:

Just sleep.

Will Callaway:

Can I plug into this headrest, Stevie? I’m going to need another screen.

John-David McKee:

I don’t want first-class, but [crosstalk 00:10:10].

Dr. Jon C:

I’ve tried that. It doesn’t work, by the way.

Will Callaway:

Hey, Buddy, are you using yours?

Heather McKee:

I’m going to need this whole row.

Will Callaway:

Yeah. Can you tilt back? That’s going to be a better angle.

Dr. Jon C:

Yeah. And you’re going to eat those peanuts.

Dr. Jon C:

But back on topic.

Dr. Jon C:

Oh, what’s neat about this whole concept and why I think we all have an innate polymath and I think it’s beaten out of us until we revert it back, all right, is 20,000+ years ago, depending on your philosophy of life, but the origin of man the way our brain is constructed, because we were raised in small tribes. We didn’t all live in New York city, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, Sheboygan, Clemson, whatever. The idea was if I have a problem within my tribe, it’s pretty simple. It’s not a very complex problem. We have something in the dynamic that’s not fitting. A saber tooth tiger is literally putting out our fires every night, whatever.

Dr. Jon C:

But now the world we live in, if you continue to not understand that we don’t live in small tribes anymore, it’s your play stupid games, win stupid prizes. But you can still apply simple principles if they have these three things, which is like your transfer bill.

Dr. Jon C:

They’re relative, they’re timeless.

John-David McKee:

If you don’t do that … The world is way too complex. And I think that’s what we worry about. We talk about specialization and how people … they work at a major corporation and they move their way up and they expand what they do within their tiny, little department in a very defined role that by the way would not exist in a small business, right?

John-David McKee:

You’re doing all this and moving your way up, but if you’re not actively seeking out how this fits together, if you were to go try to start your own business, you could have 20 years of experience, but because all you know is this extremely niche area within the larger business, you’re missing all those other skillsets. Unless you start to look at, well, my department was built this way and I know that you have the layers of leadership and if it worked like that here, and then I know how it worked in other departments, if I stop and look at it, you start to see how these things fit together. Then you see that an organization actually is no different than that board that you serve on in the nonprofit arena where there’s only 12 people because there are necessary tasks or necessary components that make up anything and you have to make sure the right things are being done. And to do that you have to be able to evaluate what the right things are, prioritize them and delegate them or do all the work yourself.

Heather McKee:

Well, and then really the whole benefit of that to you as a person is that you don’t have to spend as much time digging into something at that point because if you already have this framework or construct set up that allows you to be able to make these connections between different things, then you can just seek out the information that you don’t know yet. It’s like use the mental model to be a shortcut essentially.

John-David McKee:

If you look at every successful leader, they almost universally say the same thing. Hire people smarter than you. Well, the only reason you can do that is because you understand what you need to hire. You knew the different components that are necessary and there’s no way you can understand those all at a high level and how they come together without hiring some … You couldn’t know the specifics as somebody who’s going to be a micro expert in a certain area as well as that person who only does that. But you have to be able to identify what’s important and go out and seek those people out.

Dr. Jon C:

Well, it all gets back to the core thing that some of the best advice I’ve ever gotten, Neil Cameron years, probably like more than a decade ago now that I think about it, which is terrifying. He said to me at one point, he’s like, any construct you do in business, higher education, whatever. The one thing you have to ask in any given scenario is, what is it going to take to make something happen?

Dr. Jon C:

So that could be a decision, it could be a strategy, could be a process. But like I’ve literally looked at any given thing and somebody will be spinning in circles. Like we’re talking about this morning. Well, what’s fall enrollment going to do? And how are we going to handle college football season? And this, that and the other.

Dr. Jon C:

It’s like, okay, stop all those things and ask one simple question and filter it through this way. How do colleges make money and how do they operate? Because that’s going to help you interpret a lot of how those decisions are going to get made. And it essentially becomes the filter through that. So when you talk about hiring smarter people, it’s not their IQ is higher, it’s that they’ve got a much better skillset to inform whatever decision you are in that specific arena. They’re making you the polymath, right?

John-David McKee:

Exactly. And it’s funny because you go into that … A great CFO isn’t necessarily a great accountant. Somebody who understands all the different ways that money works throughout. So you as a CEO, hiring a good CFO almost have to hire a polymath within the financial realm, but then you can go have the great accountant and you have the great investment person and whatever it is.

John-David McKee:

It’s the hierarchy of what’s important and what’s mission critical. And if you only focus on one of the five things that are important within a particular area, you’re missing the other four, right? You have to have them all accounted for.

John-David McKee:

And that’s what these mental models … if you look at how things relate to each other and you can see that you can break down the complexity of any given situation, whether it’s super complex or fairly simple, and realize it’s the same thing, just some things are more difficult than others. Or some things require more complexity. But they’re still made up of the same building blocks. If you’re going to put a puzzle together, it can be a 100 pieces or 10,000 pieces. It’s still the same process. It’s still identifying the pieces that need to go together, how they fit, and then eventually completing the thing to look like whatever is supposed to look like.

Dr. Jon C:

But interestingly, when you build a puzzle, what’s the first thing you do?

Heather McKee:

Start with the outside.

John-David McKee:

Look for the corners.

Heather McKee:

The corners.

Dr. Jon C:

Aha. But even before that?

John-David McKee:

Look at the picture.

Dr. Jon C:

It’s so like [crosstalk 00:16:36].

Heather McKee:

Prop it up in front of you.

Dr. Jon C:

Exactly. You start there. Then you organize the pieces, right? And then you work the corners and then work in.

Will Callaway:

You flip the pieces over so you can see the colors.

Dr. Jon C:

I have people in the, call it analytics world because that’s what we teach in, but call it machine learning, call it data science whatever, that are like, you’re not on … what insert Python, what’s the new one now?

Will Callaway:

TensorFlow.

Dr. Jon C:

That’s it.

Will Callaway:

PiCore TensorFlow 2.0.

Dr. Jon C:

Yeah. All these things are really awesome for six months and could you imagine mastering that and then the herd mentality goes this way now?

Will Callaway:

Well that’s what they’re doing, right? Who came up with TensorFlow? Anyone?

Dr. Jon C:

That’s why I asked you this question.

John-David McKee:

The Tensor family.

Will Callaway:

The Google’s. Who drives the internet? The Googles.

John-David McKee:

Well it’s like Apple creates their own programming language cause it’s simplified. Sure. But also make sure that there are people that specialize in just the Apple language for iOS, right?

Will Callaway:

That worked for three years and then somebody came up with a language that can now be programmed in anything and it will translate your whatever to Android and iOS. Therefore, you don’t have to change languages.

Dr. Jon C:

No. My point is the industry changes often enough that … I sit back here like, Oh I still use SPSS and I’ve been using it since version 7 and we’re on 26 or 27.

Heather McKee:

Oh, Lord!

Dr. Jon C:

And it’s kind of like, well you’re still using that psychology sociology program? I said, yeah but it’s got neural nets and Naive Bayes and all that other stuff. Yeah but it can’t do this special function. Yeah it can because if you understand the underlying math behind it, which isn’t that hard once you learn … if you just take data and it’s like, Oh that’s what it’s doing. Because it’s data I know and understand it. Once you learn that it’s yeah, I actually can do that. You’re just using a program and you’ve learned the code. But since you don’t know what it’s doing, of course you can’t make this work.

John-David McKee:

The difference there is there are new things that are introduced that you should incorporate to stay relevant. But don’t confuse that with the latest and greatest toy that people say is critical because that’s going to be replaced. If it’s a tool, that’s great. If it’s a hammer, you need to know how to use a hammer. Now that doesn’t mean that they come out with this new hammer that has a slightly different head or a better ergonomic handle and you have to use that or you’re not relevant, right? As long as it gets the job done. But if you’re still trying to use a rock to hammer your stuff in, then you’re a little behind the times.

Will Callaway:

If the tool is not giving you an ROI personally with your time or delivering some aspect to the business, it’s probably not needed as much as you think it is because it’s new.

Heather McKee:

Yeah, or it’s the wrong tool to be using. Like you just got wrapped up in marketing speak and bought something that you thought it was going to solve your problems. Yeah. When actually it’s something else.

John-David McKee:

How you feel about something sometimes is important though. It can have a psychological effect.

Dr. Jon C:

Absolutely. Like for instance, let’s say you took four years to write a novel. You could have taken those four years and laid brick and just bought a publishing company. You could have bought a publishing company for that for years, but it made me feel good.

John-David McKee:

Right.

Heather McKee:

To do the work.

John-David McKee:

But you had to have that, you can look back on it and say that now.

Dr. Jon C:

This is the least relevant thing to this topic.

John-David McKee:

It’s kind of relevant. But also you learned a lot about the industry when you’re writing this.

Dr. Jon C:

But I could have done that laying brick and listening to podcasts while laying brick. And then bought a publishing company?

John-David McKee:

Yup.

Dr. Jon C:

I would like four years of my life back.

John-David McKee:

Potentially learned Spanish.

Dr. Jon C:

Yeah, but what would I do with it? Well, I would probably [crosstalk 00:20:19].

Will Callaway:

Laying brick could be, insert any generic business here. The point being capital can lead to opportunity and it’s how you spend your time and your energy.

Heather McKee:

Well, that’s all we have for you today, but we definitely recommend reading our blog posts associated with this episode for more information on specific types of mental models and how they work. You can find it and all things we discuss on the podcast at our website, Ins & Outs.org (www.insandouts.org). Catch you later.